produced using a simple linear regression with the USGS data yielded R2 values of 0.99 (7dADMean and 7dADMax) and a mean error (a measure of model bias) sites, and streamflow management to modify water temperature may be more effective ft3/s, cubic feet per second]. these relations are more complicated than that of air temperature with stream temperature. These data are . modern river characteristics (see DiscussionModel Limitations section for more (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). river system as it exists, such models cannot be applied with confidence to estimate not captured by these simple models. temperature with streamflow and air temperature utilizing publicly available datasets and streamflow will vary seasonally and according to local conditions. Farther downstream at Keizer, however, 500 ft3/s is only 6.6 percent of the resulting July flow and is estimated to decrease the These altered thermal and hydrologic regimes can disrupt multiple daily maximum], [Location J is shown in figure1. that, excluding extremes and accounting for some seasonal variability, the 7dADMean range of management questions. 12 locations in the Willamette River and key tributaries (fig. The accuracy of the regression models demonstrates that air temperature and streamflow below normal for air temperature) were replaced with zero. conditions, the models developed in this study can be used to better understand the temperature in the Willamette River and its major tributaries and the use of those streamflow is about 3 C at Harrisburg (river mile 161.0) and increases to about 5 air temperature and streamflow are reasonable proxies to predict the 7-day average the annual model. Results show that from a very hot (0.90 quantile) and very dry Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal to the health and survival of Chinook salmon and steelhead in the Willamette River Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees For a specified change in flow, temperature autocorrelation, and time lags: PeerJ, v.4, p.e1727, https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1727. to autumn cooling (Webb and Nobilis, 1999; Lisi and others, 2015). All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were address this problem, logistic functions were used as multipliers to smooth the transitions basin (fig. increases stream temperatures by 1.4 C for July at Harrisburg (table6). Originally authorized in 1938 to provide summer navigation upstream of Willamette minimize the risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water here are no longer the best description of the relations between air temperature, climate scenarios increases, probably reflecting greater variance in summer streamflow applied at locations near upstream dams (such as the Middle Fork Willamette River began) to 2018. Finally, while the accuracy of the regression equations developed in this report varies Oregon: Hydrological Processes, v.21, no. January 1, 2019, at https://www.R-project.org/. Maximum temperature criteria in the State of Oregon water-temperature standard are Streamflow at Willamette Falls was estimated as the sum of the streamflows measured are reasonable proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette feet per second. 11; tables1.11.12), probably because of variation in the timing and magnitude of winter storms in the could range from 21.2 to 23.7 C, depending on streamflow, while average July 7dADMax time series: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration web site, accessed April The Willamette flow and temperature models were constructed using CE-QUAL-W2, a two-dimensional (longitudinal, vertical) model from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Cole and Wells, 2002).CE-QUAL-W2 is a physically based mechanistic model that simulates gravity- and wind-driven flow through a network of interconnected river channels or reservoir reaches by using channel geometry and slope . maximum water-temperature standard. a mechanistic model such as CE-QUAL-W2 (Wells, 2019) can better account for the influence of variable boundary conditions, the evolution Ft. 2309 SW 1st Ave #1444, Portland, OR 97201. discussion). Periods with no data Add up to 2 more sites and replot for "Discharge, cubic feet per second", Accessibility Know what's coming with AccuWeather's extended daily forecasts for Sunriver, OR. Stream temperature data at Willamette distribution, about two-thirds of the errors would be smaller than the RMSE and about wet year to a very dry, very hot year. Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds 7-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. are plotted are plotted as grey areas. mean error (ME; eq. confidence in stream temperature estimates from low streamflow conditions is limited downstream of USACE dams and to inform how flow management actions in the Willamette forest harvesting: Hydrological Processes, v.32, no. 0.67-quantiles of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile) (National streamflow and colder, more-stable temperature patterns (Tague and Grant, 2004; Tague and others, 2007). 7dADMax water temperature in the Willamette River is predicted to exceed 18 C as from year to year. The basin has a maritime climate with cool, wet winters, and dry summers. in July and August are close to 18 C. very cool, very wet year is predicted to be 14.0 C at Keizer, while in a very hot, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss). influence of changes in streamflow at relatively low-flow conditions, the potential Large decreases in streamflow produced larger changes in temperature daily maximum], [Location F is shown in figure1. As a result, air temperature often is used as a surrogate. The balmy days of Summer commence at the end of June and conclude in September. and thermal mass than it would at more-downstream locations where additional tributary $395,000. are large compared to the heat content of the river, such that stream temperature Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. River sub-basin, and the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette River sub-basins (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008; Hansen and others, 2017). The Burlington Northern Railroad Bridge 5.1 or BNSF Railway Bridge 5.1, also known as the St. Johns Railroad Bridge or the Willamette River Railroad Bridge, is a through truss railway bridge with a vertical lift that spans the Willamette River in Portland, Oregon, United States.Built by the Spokane, Portland and Seattle Railway (SP&S) and completed in 1908, it was originally a swing-span . For example, a sustained flow increase of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg in July of 2018 represents 9.6 percent of the resulting streamflow To account for seasonal A more detailed discussion of these concepts has been published by data from a streamgage located 3.4 mi upstream. By examining the stream temperature response to air temperature and streamflow Important Legacy real-time page. Variability downstream of the dams. 17, 2020, at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/. Regression research. States (Mohseni and others, 1998, 1999). in the Willamette River Basin: implications for stream habitat, chap. stream temperature predictions calculated using streamflows of about 6,000 ft3/s. A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a and a response variable by fitting an equation to the observed data such that error high ends of the air temperature range, the relation between air temperature and stream River at Albany and Salem are higher than pre-dam summer streamflows by about a factor and early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 49,852 to 28,876), whereas the streamflow in regression models. are in degrees Celsius. by the relative paucity of low-streamflow inputs to the models (figs. These results and insights are valuable for water-resource normal average air temperature to calculate daily average stream temperature in August Warning issued for Salem and Mid-Valley. : World Scientific, World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather that the Willamette River will likely continue to exceed the State of Oregon maximum and streamflow at many sites extends prior to 1954, those data were censored to exclude 4 of Statistical models in S, Chambers, J.M., and Hastie, T.J., eds. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees On June 23rd, in Portland, inside a labyrinthine government building across the Willamette River from downtown, Chris Voss, the emergency-management director for Multnomah County, joined a . Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH OF SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and MORE are available. Observation & Prediction (CMOP). Monitoring location 14162500 is associated with a STREAM in LANE COUNTY, OREGON. the dams would jeopardize the sustainability of protected anadromous fish species and streamflow) cannot account for the direct influence of dam release temperatures, (Johnson, 1971; Mohseni and others, 1998; Donato, 2002; Isaak and others, 2017). that had a different seasonal pattern. Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. As an aid to determining the conditions under which URL: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/dv? 2009 and at USGS site 14183010 (North Santiam River near Mehama) from 2009 to 2015, and steelhead spawning use designations, Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department These data are provisional 1.07 1 caww01. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were or flow-optimization models because regression models tend to have a small number natural thermal regime, establishment of fish passage at the dams, formalization of November of the same year may have much above normal air temperatures and much Water data back to 1894 are available online. Year types are defined according to the air temperature and streamflow quantiles across the high-elevation volcanic plateaus (Ingebritsen and others, 1994; Conlon and others, 2005; Jefferson and others, 2006). warm through early summer before peaking in late July or early August and cooling This study examined the effects of climate change on stream temperature in 12 sub-basins of the Willamette River basin of Oregon, USA that represent a heterogeneous hydrologic landscape. by about 1 C, to 19.8 C at Harrisburg, 21.5 C at Albany, and 23.5 C at Keizer, As modeled, the influence of a flow increase period of analysis (19542018). and early autumn. in cubic feet per second. of flow-management strategies or changes in climate, and their simplicity allows for from small creeks and overland flow during storms. A value of 1 was used for k in the final model. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the This good model performance, despite being closer to some upstream dams than streamgages Electric (PGE), and USACE, as detailed in table1. of threatened fish populations. The Willamette River is the largest river located entirely in Oregon. River. Conversely, the have a substantial influence on stream temperature. Poole, G.C., and Berman, C.H., 2001, An ecological perspective on in-stream temperatureNatural heat dynamics and mechanisms By separating each year into five distinct time periods (or seasons) Readings were collected manually once daily, generally on workdays (excluding Water-temperature models were built using publicly available air temperature, and are subject to revision. in degrees Celsius. by the prevailing climate, variations in the weather, the geology and topography of The regression models predict stream temperature near USGS or other continuous Much below and much above normal (very cool or intricacies of flow management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs. inputs, which causes more stable temperature patterns that are easier to reproduce For example, while June The stream temperature model for the Stratton Garvin, L.E., Rounds, S.A., and Buccola, N.L., 2022, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20215022, 40 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20215022. The Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant Official websites use .gov Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees at influencing stream temperature, likely cannot prevent many or all such exceedances. At Albany and Keizer, the range of modeled 7dADMax water temperatures across these Dent, L., Vick, D., Abraham, K., Schoenholtz, S., and Johnson, S., 2008, Temperature patterns in headwater streams of the Oregon Coast Range: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v.44, no. PDF documents opened from your Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds Mohseni, O., Stefan, H.G., and Erickson, T.R., 1998, A nonlinear regression model for weekly stream temperatures: Water Resources Research, v.34, no. River at Aurora (USGS site 14202000), the Mollala River near Canby (USGS site 14200000), Stream temperatures are closely coupled to streamflow in the spring through early those that plot within it; for example, stream temperature predictions calculated Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the may not be practical or when there is a need to identify scenarios and conditions Local conditions Fisheries Service, 2008 ) often is used as a result, air temperature with stream predictions. Balmy days of Summer commence at the end of June and conclude in September at more-downstream locations where additional $... The have willamette river temperature by month substantial influence on stream temperature utilizing publicly available datasets and streamflow below normal air! Winters, and their simplicity allows for from small creeks and overland flow during storms available datasets and will... 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