November 7: FL-13 moves from Likely to Leans Republican; FL-27 Leans to Likely Republican; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up. These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. We use numbers to expressuncertainty. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cgep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. Send us an email. Historical comparisons are also provided for context. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. The Vanguard program exists to provide support to candidates running in Republican-leaning open seats. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Forecasts from outside this range can easily be generated by extrapolating from those shown in the table. November 1:AK-AL, AZ-04, KS-03, NH-01, PA-17 move from Toss-up to Leans D; CA-27, CO-08, NC-13, NV-03, NY-19, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; CA-40 Safe to Likely R; CA-47, CT-05, NY-04, VA-7, WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up; CT-03 Likely to Safe D; NE-02 Likely to Leans R. The final 2022 House ratings from Elections Daily, a site that provides nonpartisan election coverage. Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. The final 2022 House ratings from Inside Elections. Clickme! These battleground races were selected using the following criteria. Leading candidates forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in the top 50 competitive districts. Ballotpedia tracked 39 districts (8.5%) as battleground races. The figures shown are total numbers. | Privacy Policy, Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. MONTREAL, Que. One additional factor that is not included in the House forecast is the impact of redistricting, which will take place this cycle based on the results of the 2020 census. Seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost seats.[62]. Arizona. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We now rate 218 House seats -- the magic number for winning a majority -- as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings. 50. 51 +1. Current Sabato's Crystal Ball 2022 House forecast. Given the standard error of about 10 seats for the House forecast and three seats for the Senate model, however, the safest conclusion would be that the balance of power in both chambers would probably be very close. Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. You can also view these ratings as a table. File usage on Commons. The final 2022 House ratings from Cook Political Report. Welcome to 338Canada Quebec! Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. Governor Charlie Baker (R) signed a bill into law that rescheduled the state's primary election from September 20, 2022, to September 6, 2022. Premier Franois Legault and his Coalition Avenir Qubec are certain to win the next provincial election. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. Republicans currently hold 20 of the 34 seats at stake in 2022. Alaska. The 2023 Nigerian House of Representatives elections in Abia State will be held on 25 February 2023, to elect the 3 House of Representatives members from Abia State, one from each of the state's three senatorial districts. [39] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Apply today! Table 2 displays the results of regression analyses of House and Senate seat change in midterm elections between 1946 and 2018. Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. WINNER Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. In 2022, 52 districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election. Colorado. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. You can also view these ratingsas a table. November 7:CA-03 moves from Leans to Likely R; CA-06, WA-10 Safe to Likely D; CA-13, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; MI-11 Likely to Safe D; CO-07, GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; GA-12, NC-07, NV-02, SC-01 Likely to Safe R; NV-01 Leans D to Toss-up; NV-04 Toss-up to Leans D. 2023 Electoral Ventures LLC. See how many seats Republicans or Democrats have gained or lost. The following map shows each state with a Republican battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. 2022 U.S. House of Representative election results and polls Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. McLeod-Skinner's margin of victory over Schrader in the primary. See how each partys forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the House have changed over time. [56][57], The following table displays candidates who have qualified for the Young Guns Vanguard program for the 2022 election cycle. There were 30 U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022. Alabama. Looking for the national forecast? Due to rounding, forecasts do not add to 100 in some races. The court's order did not affect the July 22, 2022, deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee. Lawmakers in the Colorado House of Representatives on Monday defeated a Republican proposal for a sweeping overhaul of state election laws backed by conspiracy theorists who baselessly allege that . The table below includes election results for districts that were open at the time the state held its congressional primary. 63Non-voting delegates 63.1American Samoa 63.2District of Columbia 63.3Guam 63.4Northern Mariana Islands 63.5United States Virgin Islands 64See also 65Notes 66References Toggle the table of contents 2022 United States House of Representatives elections 12 languages Deutsch Espaol Franais Suomi Republicans will win the House of Representatives, CNN projects, in a victory that will fall short of their hopes of a "red wave" but thwart President Joe Biden's domestic agenda and will. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. You can also view these ratings as a table. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. TheInteractiveand2023views use redistricted lines,placing incumbents where applicable. Hover over a district for more information. [2] Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. In this section, you will find a list of noteworthy and notable Republican and Democratic primaries taking place across the country for the U.S. House. 49 -1. Democrats 36 seats not up for election. In addition, as mentioned earlier, the margin of error for the Senate model is relatively large, leaving room for a range of possible outcomes from a GOP gain of two-to-three seats to a Democratic gain of four-to-five seats. . Research: Josh Altic Vojsava Ramaj The Supreme Court of North Carolina ordered the postponement of the statewide primary, originally scheduled for March 8, 2022, to May 17, 2022. All Rights Reserved. According to Politico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 . There are three tiers of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order to qualify. The tendency of the presidents party to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections is one of the best-known regularities in American politics. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r

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